"In 2018, there are still 216 production lines under construction in China. It is estimated that 300 million tons of clinker production capacity and 535 million tons of cement will be added in 2013. By then, China's cement production capacity will reach 3.133 billion tons, and it is estimated that the surplus will reach 30.54%. At the 2018 China International Cement Summit, Cui Xingtai, the director and vice president of China's building materials executive, and chairman of China United Cement, preached.
Based on the above data, it is not necessary to compare with the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. The excess capacity of the cement industry will reach nearly 1 billion tons. In this regard, domestic People in the cement industry also think that in recent years, China The cement industry has now entered a substantial, comprehensive and decisive surplus. And this surplus was constrained for a long time The opening of the cement industry , and The value of the cement industry is returning.
Cui Xingtai analyzes and believes that the outstanding problem caused by overcapacity is the low price of cement. In the past ten years, the price of steel related to cement has doubled, and the price of coal has doubled. However, the price of cement has been around 350 yuan / ton for ten years. Alas, the value of the operation is severely lacking. What's more serious is that there are still many areas where the price of cement is around 250 yuan / ton, but the value is indeed now Serious problems in the cement industry .
In practice, our country The cement industry has been in a periodical and regional surplus for a long time. Due to overcapacity and the increase in the demand side, starting in the fourth quarter of 2017, the nationwide shortage of cement demand led to a sharp increase in cement inventory and a decline in cement prices. Cement companies must not wait for it. This situation was particularly beautiful in the first quarter of 2018. East China jointly shut down the kiln in January to cope with the lack of post-holiday demand. Cement companies in Henan Province shut down the kiln for 1 month to cope with the sluggish demand for cement caused by the climate haze. Hubei, Hunan, Hebei, Shandong, Guangdong, Northeast and many other regions stopped the kiln to follow up.
Due to the decline in economic growth, the growth rate of fixed asset investment slowed down, and real estate regulation deepened. Cement industry demand is weak, cement companies choose to stop kiln to limit production. In this round of kiln shutdown and production limitation, Anhui and Hebei provinces have performed particularly well.
Anhui Province is the home base of Conch Cement. Conch Cement holds about 70% of the cement shopping malls in Anhui Province. In recent years, South Side Cement has also continuously penetrated into Anhui Cement Shopping Malls and has also occupied a share of shopping malls in the region. In the first quarter of this year, the country's cement shopping malls showed a downturn, which is the first to stop kiln production and limit production in the region to balance supply and demand. According to the situation grasped by the author, from the beginning of February, the accounting of Anhui cement enterprises has gone through a long period of shutdown and maintenance, and more of them are mobile production restrictions.
While Hebei Province is the country of Jidong Cement and Jinying Cement, these two cement companies account for more than half of the mall's production capacity. Beginning in February of this year, Hebei put forward a slogan of joint price increase, provided that the kiln was stopped for 15-30 days. During this period, many enterprises participated and the price of cement also increased slightly. Under the conditions of appeal, Hebei, led by Jinyu Cement and Jidong Cement in early March The cement industry began to implement the method of stopping the kiln in the province for one month. With the planned shutdown of the kiln in Hebei, the cement price in Hebei rose by dozens of yuan.
In fact, facing overcapacity in all operations, The cement industry is starting to make a difference. As our country The leader of the cement industry , led by the China Cement Association, held our country in Nanjing on March 22 Roundtable of 15 leaders in the cement industry .
Lei Qianzhi, president of the China Cement Association, chaired the meeting to control the increment, optimize the inventory, promote the merger and reorganization of enterprises, and advance industrial concentration and planning benefits. The situation and opening opportunities faced by the cement industry were analyzed and discussed.
The conference thought that China's cement production capacity has gone from a temporary and staged surplus to a comprehensive and long-term surplus. It is necessary to strictly implement the rules on suppressing the approval of new production capacity and new projects in Document 38, and to pick up the projects under construction that do not have warrant procedures, and expressly order those projects that have not been started on March 10, 2018 despite the approval Create intermittently.
The meeting pointed out that government departments should issue " Implementation plan for the merger and reorganization of the cement industry "; to speed up the selection of backward cement production capacity; The cement industry has opened up energy conservation and emission reduction to provide capital and policy support, especially the use of cement kiln co-processing projects and greenhouse gas emission reduction technology transformation projects. Regarding the specification revision of the cement nitrogen oxide emission reduction policy, we should listen more to the opinions of enterprises and operation associations, and select different regions and different planning enterprises to conduct pilots, implement inspiring policies, improve skills, and gradually promote them.
In the meantime, the author thought that there was something else that was also important. During the meeting, the leaders of the 15 participating companies appealed: facing a severe overcapacity and a fierce disorderly competition, the government and enterprises were required to jointly cultivate a strong “central organization”.
According to the clarification, the "central organization" inherently formed a certain reference influence for the government to formulate policies, and it has supervision and control over member companies' compliance with the implementation of national policies and the overall interests of construction operations.
According to the requirements of these representative large enterprises, this "central organization" will become "strong" in the future, and the author thinks that such an organization will put more pressure on local authorities to promote the coordination of industrial operations.
By now Looking at the situation of the cement industry , the precursors of operational coordination, such as East China, Central China, North China, South China, Northeast China, etc. In the cement industry , the concentration of large enterprises is relatively high, and the cement synergy is relatively early and better. Then, the benefits of cement enterprises in these regions are much higher than in other regions.
In the words of Cui Xingtai at the China International Cement Summit, the profit method of China's cement enterprises is no longer the amount, but the profit per ton of cement. The practice is exactly the same. Since the regional synergy has exploded in the East China Shopping Center, the profit per ton of cement in the region has advanced significantly. Although the sales volume of the individual enterprises may be less than before, the profits of the enterprises are constantly increasing.
Similarly, many companies in the western region are beginning to pay attention to this point. Take the southwest region as an example. The excess of the cement industry has now become an indisputable practice, and a "no regional leader, many small businesses" has become a typical feature of the region. The region is still in a chaotic low-price competition situation, and the involvement of China's building materials Southwest Cement may change this format.
On March 29, Cui Xingtai, the executive director and vice president of China's building materials, and chairman of China United Cement stated at the 2018 China International Cement Summit that China's building materials cement capacity has reached 300 million tons by the end of 2011. China's building materials will continue to increase during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Efforts in China Cement industry merger and reorganization, it is estimated that by 2021, China's building material cement production capacity will reach 500 million tons.
Southwest Cement has just been established shortly, and the statement of China Construction Materials' senior management will undoubtedly announce that China Construction Materials will conduct super-large-scale integration in Southwest China. After the integration, the operation of the opened area will be coordinated, and then the cement price in this area will definitely start to rise.
Operators also urged that in the southwestern region, cement production capacity in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan is now severely excess, and governments, associations, and enterprises should severely control the new capacity, imitate other areas such as East China, and implement operation coordination to open up operations for health Dedication.
In my contempt, the next step is to face a nationwide overcapacity in cement production, and the operation coordination will definitely be opened in the national planning.